| Course Unit Code | 545-0158/02 |
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| Number of ECTS Credits Allocated | 4 ECTS credits |
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| Type of Course Unit * | Compulsory |
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| Level of Course Unit * | First Cycle |
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| Year of Study * | Third Year |
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| Semester when the Course Unit is delivered | Summer Semester |
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| Mode of Delivery | Face-to-face |
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| Language of Instruction | Czech |
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| Prerequisites and Co-Requisites | Course succeeds to compulsory courses of previous semester |
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| Name of Lecturer(s) | Personal ID | Name |
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| DVO30 | prof. Ing. Jaroslav Dvořáček, CSc. |
| SOU70 | RNDr. Radmila Sousedíková, Ph.D. |
| ROL74 | Ing. Markéta Laštůvková, Ph.D. |
| Summary |
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| The subject familiarizes with role and significance of forecasting in decision making process and managerial process. There are presented basic terms of forecasting activity and basic groups of prognostic methods. There are mentioned the most renowned global forecasts. Prognostic techniques are applied in raw materials industry, namely for most important so called critical raw materials. |
| Learning Outcomes of the Course Unit |
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| Selection of prognostic techniques and their application in the field of managerial and planning activities. Knowledge of basic prognostic methods and their use on company level. Skill concerning analysis of economic indicators development. |
| Course Contents |
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1. Task of forecasting activity.
2. Possibility of forecasting.
3. Forecasting and decision making process.
4. Forecast as starting point of strategic decisions, specification in the
field of raw materials.
5. Forecasts classification.
6. Methods of forecasting.
7. Methods of forecasting based on analogy.
8. Methods of forecasting based on information of experts.
9. Methods of forecasting based on prolongation.
10. Methods of forecasting based on system approach.
11. Forecasts of Rome club.
12. Global forecasts in the field of raw material sources.
13. Prediction of production, consumption and price development of selected raw materials. |
| Recommended or Required Reading |
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| Required Reading: |
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HYNDMAN, Rob J. and George ATHANASOPOULOS. Forecasting: principles and practice. 2nd edition. Melbourne: OTexts, 2018. ISBN 978-0-9875071-1-2.
ELLIOTT, Graham, Clive William John GRANGER and Allan TIMMERMANN, ed. Handbook of economic forecasting. Volume 1. Amsterdam: Elsevier/North-Holland, 2006.
RUNGE I. C. Mining economics and strategy. Society for Mining, Metallurgy and Exploration, Inc. Littleton, 1998.
CLEMENTS M. P.,HENDRY D. F.(ed.): A Companion to Economic Forecasting. 2004. Wiley Online Library.
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ŠTĚDROŇ, Bohumír. Prognostické metody a jejich aplikace. V Praze: C.H. Beck, 2012. ISBN 978-80-7179-174-4.
VINCÚR, Pavol a Štefan ZAJAC. Úvod do prognostiky. Bratislava: Sprint, 2007. ISBN 978-80-89085-86-6.
CLEMENTS M. P.,HENDRY D. F.(ed.). A Companion to Economic Forecasting. 2004. Wiley Online Library.
ELLIOTT, Graham, Clive William John GRANGER a Allan TIMMERMANN, ed. Handbook of economic forecasting. Volume 1. Amsterdam: Elsevier/North-Holland, 2006. |
| Recommended Reading: |
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EVANS, Michael K. Practical business forecasting [online]. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons, 2008 [cit. 2017-11-14]. ISBN 978-0-470-75562-4.
DVOŘÁČEK, Jaroslav. Forecasting. VŠB-TU Ostrava, HGF, 2007.
LIU, Lon-Mu. Time series analysis and forecasting. 2nd ed. Villa Park: Scientific Computing Associates, 2006. ISBN 0-9765056-6-5.
MAISEL, Lawrence and Gary COKINS. Predictive business analytics: forward-looking capabilities to improve business performance. Hoboken: Wiley, 2014. ISBN 978-1-118-17556-9. |
POTŮČEK, Martin. Poznávání budoucnosti jako výzva. V Praze: Karolinum, 2011. ISBN 978-80-246-1897-5.
TETLOCK, Philip a Dan GARDNER. Superprognózy: umění a věda předpovídání budoucnosti. Přeložil Filip DRLÍK. Brno: Jan Melvil Publishing, 2016. ISBN 978-80-7555-009-5.
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| Planned learning activities and teaching methods |
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| Lectures, Tutorials |
| Assesment methods and criteria |
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| Task Title | Task Type | Maximum Number of Points
(Act. for Subtasks) | Minimum Number of Points for Task Passing |
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| Credit and Examination | Credit and Examination | 100 (100) | 51 |
| Credit | Credit | 30 (30) | 17 |
| Examples | Other task type | 30 | 17 |
| Examination | Examination | 70 (70) | 34 |
| Ústní zkouška | Oral examination | 70 | 34 |