The course ”Management Methods and Decision Making“ is designed for full-time study with an electronic support (so-called blended learning). Organized education is concentrated in lectures and tutorials.
Lectures are held in the first 7 weeks of the semester in the range of 2 hours per week (14 hours). Seminars are held every week in the range of 2 hours, all the exercises are in the computer lab. Required Software: Microsoft Excel, Gambit, Sanna.
The study materials for all lectures and tutorials are available on the Internet (Moodle CMS) in PDF format or as data files.
SYLLABUS OF LECTURES:
1. Basic concepts of decision theory
decision-making processes and problems, the structure and elements of decision-making processes, the classification of decision-making models, information in decision making
2. Analysis of the decision problem
analysis and formulation of decision problems, influense diagrams, cognitive maps, six-word chart, Pareto diagram, causal diagnosis, analysis of force field
3. Methods of decision making under certainty
multi-criteria evaluation of alternatives, selection and weighting of criteria, creation of options, determining the consequences and evaluation of options
4. Group decision making
rate of participation in decision-making styles, decision making, group decision making and its properties, brainstorming, Delphi method, Vroom - Yetton model for decision-making style selection
5. Methods of decision making under risk and uncertainty
conditional and full likelihood of subjective probability, decision matrix, decision making rules for risk and uncertainty, the value of information
6. More-stage decision-making processes
probabilistic and scenario trees, Bayesian decision trees, sensitivity analysis, the concept of risk and utility functions
7. Decision-making methods based on game theory
matrix games, antagonistic games, Nash's optimum and Minimax, the value of the game, pure and mixed strategy, principle dominated, non-antagonistic games, cooperative and non-cooperative games
SYLLABUS OF TUTORIALS:
1. Modelling and Simulation in Excel
random processes, random number generator, simulation of random distribution, the law of large numbers, Monte Carlo
2. Solver tool in Excel, linear optimization
optimization problem in Excel, transportation problem, production plan, assignment problem
3. Analysis of the decision problem
influense diagrams, cognitive maps, six-word chart, Pareto diagram, causal diagnosis, analysis of force field
4. Selection and determination of criteria weights
multi-criteria evaluation of alternatives, selection and weighting of criteria, allocation methods, paired comparisons, Saaty method, decomposition scales
5. Methods of Multicriterial evaluation of options
production options, multicriteria utility function, the order method, the method of linear utility function, method basic variants, Pattern method, Saaty's method
6. Group decision making
brainstorming and brainwriting, 6-3-5 method, method of EUR Delphi method, a Vroom - Yetton model, selection of decision-making style
7. Refresher Exercise
Preparation for seminar work, presentation of example of the selected decision problem
8. Methods of decision making under risk and uncertainty
decision matrix, decision making under uncertainty, the criteria of Wald, Hurwitz (maximax and fifty-fify), Laplace, and Savage, decision making under risk, expected utility rule, the rule of the expected value, respectively the value and variance
9. Multi-stage decision-making processes
probabilistic and scenario trees, Bayesian decision trees, the optimal way in the decision tree
10. Matrix games with a zero-sum payouts
matrix games, Minimax, saddle point, the value of the game, dominated by the principle, pure and mixed strategies, properties of optimal strategies
11. Matrix games with nonzero sum payments
cooperative and non-cooperative games, games with prizes and transfer without transfer prizes, prisoner's dilemma, marital dilemma
12. - 14. Seminar projects presentation
Lectures are held in the first 7 weeks of the semester in the range of 2 hours per week (14 hours). Seminars are held every week in the range of 2 hours, all the exercises are in the computer lab. Required Software: Microsoft Excel, Gambit, Sanna.
The study materials for all lectures and tutorials are available on the Internet (Moodle CMS) in PDF format or as data files.
SYLLABUS OF LECTURES:
1. Basic concepts of decision theory
decision-making processes and problems, the structure and elements of decision-making processes, the classification of decision-making models, information in decision making
2. Analysis of the decision problem
analysis and formulation of decision problems, influense diagrams, cognitive maps, six-word chart, Pareto diagram, causal diagnosis, analysis of force field
3. Methods of decision making under certainty
multi-criteria evaluation of alternatives, selection and weighting of criteria, creation of options, determining the consequences and evaluation of options
4. Group decision making
rate of participation in decision-making styles, decision making, group decision making and its properties, brainstorming, Delphi method, Vroom - Yetton model for decision-making style selection
5. Methods of decision making under risk and uncertainty
conditional and full likelihood of subjective probability, decision matrix, decision making rules for risk and uncertainty, the value of information
6. More-stage decision-making processes
probabilistic and scenario trees, Bayesian decision trees, sensitivity analysis, the concept of risk and utility functions
7. Decision-making methods based on game theory
matrix games, antagonistic games, Nash's optimum and Minimax, the value of the game, pure and mixed strategy, principle dominated, non-antagonistic games, cooperative and non-cooperative games
SYLLABUS OF TUTORIALS:
1. Modelling and Simulation in Excel
random processes, random number generator, simulation of random distribution, the law of large numbers, Monte Carlo
2. Solver tool in Excel, linear optimization
optimization problem in Excel, transportation problem, production plan, assignment problem
3. Analysis of the decision problem
influense diagrams, cognitive maps, six-word chart, Pareto diagram, causal diagnosis, analysis of force field
4. Selection and determination of criteria weights
multi-criteria evaluation of alternatives, selection and weighting of criteria, allocation methods, paired comparisons, Saaty method, decomposition scales
5. Methods of Multicriterial evaluation of options
production options, multicriteria utility function, the order method, the method of linear utility function, method basic variants, Pattern method, Saaty's method
6. Group decision making
brainstorming and brainwriting, 6-3-5 method, method of EUR Delphi method, a Vroom - Yetton model, selection of decision-making style
7. Refresher Exercise
Preparation for seminar work, presentation of example of the selected decision problem
8. Methods of decision making under risk and uncertainty
decision matrix, decision making under uncertainty, the criteria of Wald, Hurwitz (maximax and fifty-fify), Laplace, and Savage, decision making under risk, expected utility rule, the rule of the expected value, respectively the value and variance
9. Multi-stage decision-making processes
probabilistic and scenario trees, Bayesian decision trees, the optimal way in the decision tree
10. Matrix games with a zero-sum payouts
matrix games, Minimax, saddle point, the value of the game, dominated by the principle, pure and mixed strategies, properties of optimal strategies
11. Matrix games with nonzero sum payments
cooperative and non-cooperative games, games with prizes and transfer without transfer prizes, prisoner's dilemma, marital dilemma
12. - 14. Seminar projects presentation