Methods of Logistics System Forecasting

1. Introduction to traffic forecasting, traffic surveys and their classification.
2. Traffic survey of intensities according to TP 189.
3. Random vector and its description, covariance, simple correlation coefficient.
4. Independence testing in the combination table.
5. Introduction to time series - basic concepts, division of time series.
6. Time series trend analysis - linear trend, parabolic trend, exponential trend.
7. Time series trend analysis - modified exponential trend, logistic curve, Gompertz curve.
8. Correlation analysis - Pearson's correlation coefficient, linear independence testing.
9. Regression analysis - basic concepts, types of regression functions, least squares method and its application in estimating the parameters of a regression function, multiple regression.
10. Four-phase model of traffic forecast - calculation of prospective traffic volumes - use of regression analysis, methods of specific momentum.
11. Four-phase model of traffic forecast - determination of interregional relations - analogous methods.
12. Four-phase model of traffic forecast - determination of interregional relations - synthetic methods.
13. Four-phase model of traffic forecast - division of transport work, allocation to the network.
14. Reserve.