| Course Unit Code | 545-0276/04 |
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| Number of ECTS Credits Allocated | 4 ECTS credits |
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| Type of Course Unit * | Compulsory |
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| Level of Course Unit * | First Cycle |
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| Year of Study * | Third Year |
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| Semester when the Course Unit is delivered | Summer Semester |
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| Mode of Delivery | Face-to-face |
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| Language of Instruction | Czech |
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| Prerequisites and Co-Requisites | Course succeeds to compulsory courses of previous semester |
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| Name of Lecturer(s) | Personal ID | Name |
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| DVO30 | prof. Ing. Jaroslav Dvořáček, CSc. |
| ROL74 | Ing. Markéta Laštůvková, Ph.D. |
| Summary |
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Forecasting and decision-making process. Basic terms of forecasting activity,
forecasts classification. Forecasting methods: methods of analogy, methods
based on experts' information, extrapolation methods, methods based on system
approach. Application of forecasting methods in enterprise practice.
Forecasting in the sphere of raw materials resources. Forecasting as the basis
of strategic decisions. |
| Learning Outcomes of the Course Unit |
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| Understanding and aplication of basic forecasting methods |
| Course Contents |
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1. Introduction – forecasting and decision making process.
2. Forecasting task – governmental level and enterprise level.
3. Fundamental terms of forecasting activity – term of forecasting, forecasting time horizon, forecast verification, forecast probability, development of forecasting activity.
4. Forecasts classification – classification based on forecasting course, classification based on time horizon length, classification based on forecast subject.
5. Methods of forecasting – possible classification ways.
5.1. Methods based on analogy – biological growth analogy, historical analogy.
5.2. Methods based on information of experts –questionnaire, Delphi method, brainstorming.
5.3. Methods based on prolongation – graphical and numerical prolongation.
5.4 .Methods based on system approach – morphology method, method of cross interaction.
6. Application of forecasting methods in enterprise practice.
6.1. Differential estimation of trend line.
6.2. Direct estimation of trend line.
7. Forecasts in the field of raw material sources.
8. Forecasts as a starting point of strategic decisions – term of
strategy, enterprise strategies basic types, forecasts and
strategic decisions.
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| Recommended or Required Reading |
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| Required Reading: |
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Makridakis, S. et al.: Forecasting : Methods and applications. Second Edition.
John Wiley & Sons, 1983.
Dvořáček,J.: Forecasting. Ostrava : VŠB-TUO, 2007.43 pp. |
DVOŘÁČEK, J. Předvídání v surovinovém průmyslu. e-learningová podpora. VŠB-TUO 2018
DVOŘÁČEK, J. Forecasting. Syllabus. Ostrava : VŠB-TUO, 2007. 43 s.
ŠMÍDA, F. Strategie v podnikové praxi. 1. vyd. Praha : Profesional Publishing,
2003. 219 s. ISBN 80-86419-41-X.
|
| Recommended Reading: |
|---|
Makridakis, S. et al.: Forecasting : Methods and applications. Second Edition.
John Wiley & Sons, 1983.
Dvořáček,J.: Forecasting. Ostrava : VŠB-TUO, 2007.43 pp. |
DVOŘÁČEK, J. Forecasting. Syllabus. Ostrava : VŠB-TUO, 2007. 43 s.
|
| Planned learning activities and teaching methods |
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| Lectures, Individual consultations, Tutorials |
| Assesment methods and criteria |
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| Task Title | Task Type | Maximum Number of Points
(Act. for Subtasks) | Minimum Number of Points for Task Passing |
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| Exercises evaluation and Examination | Credit and Examination | 100 (100) | 51 |
| Exercises evaluation | Credit | 33 (33) | 17 |
| Project | Project | 33 | 17 |
| Examination | Examination | 67 (67) | 34 |
| Written examination | Written examination | 30 | 15 |
| Oral | Oral examination | 37 | 19 |